Well, that was ugly. I’m already late on this, and if you’re reading this at all you’ve already heard all the usual recriminations and braggadocio. Here are my observations, predictions, and prescriptions for the immediate future.
Observations
-Like all the wisemen on TV predicted, turnout was key. And my side failed miserably. The much vaunted 18-29 year old ‘youth vote’ flocked to the polls like…..what you would expect out of this bunch of slapdicks. From what I’ve read, this age group voted in about the same proportions as it did in 2000, maybe slightly higher. It wasn’t nearly enough. Future campaign managers take note: When the chips are down, you cannot count on us. Bank on the seniors.
-Don’t underestimate the effect of so-called ‘gay marriage ballot initiatives’ on the impact of the election. One could construct a reasonable argument that had such an initiative not been on Ohio’s ballot, John Kerry would have won the state and hence the election. It’s not an irrelevant observation at this point, since ballot initiatives will only figure more prominently in determining the outcome of general elections from this point forward. Congratulation on the gay-bashing fueled victory, GOP.
-Election-night coverage, while better than four years ago, was still abysmal. Despite promises that races would not be called with undue haste, it still happened, albeit in smaller ways. Florida was called way too early on the basis of Bush’s strength in the “I-4 corridor.” (Raise your hand if you knew what the “I-4” corridor was before last night. Max, you liar, put your hand down.) Tucker Carlson put it best last night when reacting to Florida’s announcement that it might not have time to count all of its absentee and early ballots before the race was called. “It’s positively third-world.” He’s right. When you cast a ballot, you should have reasonable expectations that it will be counted, and counted in timely fashion. I also don’t appreciate predictions that are launched with zero percent of precincts reporting. Case in point, literally two minutes after the polls in Arizona closed, CNN and Fox were both calling the Senate race there for John McCain. Look, is he going to win? Of course. But calling the race before the first vote is ever tallied sends the message: fuck you, we know what this race will end up as, don’t bother counting the ballots. Why then vote at all? If it’s such a foregone conclusion, you don’t need to announce your prediction ninety seconds after the polls close.
Predictions
-Obviously, Rehnquist looks like he’s on the ropes and on his way out. Bush will appoint one, probably two justices to the court this term. I’d be surprised if he appointed more than two. I know what the conventional wisdom says, but don’t expect this to change the court significantly. You don’t get much more conservative than William Rehnquist. All we’re doing know is insuring the continuation of his right-wing ideology for another generation. I don’t think we’re augmenting its effect. My early bets are on Alberto Gonzalez, White House counsel. But Maxspeak is predicting that Bush will appoint Ann Coulter. Could be worse. Wait, no, it couldn’t be worse than Ann Coulter.
-Delivering his victory speech today, Bush spoke about simplifying the tax code. This is a coded message. The long term goal of the GOP is a flat tax and/or wacked out national sales tax plan. The first step of this is flattening the marginal tax rates. That’s done. Look for a furher flattening (i.e. lowering the top rate) coupled with a push to eliminate taxes on capital gains. These are both horrible ideas that will create further havoc with the deficit. The GOP will blame some trifling program, however, for the revenue loss. I don’t know…maybe Americorp. Or the NEA. It’s always fashionable in the red states to bash the NEA.
-Sorry kids, no draft. Not that Bush would hesitate to piss on your life, but he knows that a draft will never fly in this country. Look for enlistment rates to fall off the table even farther, however, as Iraq does not miraculously become un-fucked. In other foreign policy news, Iran announces that it has nuclear weapons sometime in late 2006. U.S. temporarily flips out, then realizes it doesn’t actually know where Iran is located on a map. The world shrugs its shoulders, remembering that the Soviets too had nuclear weapons and that the world kept spinning.
-Nobody is going to fucking Canada, so stop saying that. The joke wore off, like, four fucking years ago. But just in case you were contemplating a jaunt North, the Candadian government has issued this warning.
Canadian officials made clear on Wednesday that any U.S. citizens so fed up with Bush that they want to make a fresh start up north would have to stand in line like any other would-be immigrants -- a wait that can take up to a year.
Okay? You’re going to have to sneak across the border and sell weed to make ends meet for a while, just like everybody else.
Prescriptions
-Democrats: Don’t fucking flip out. I know it’s bad, but really, it’s not the end of the world. Ronald Reagan was a worse president then the current simian humanoid in the White House. Give Bush another four year, and he may break that mark, but remember this country has been through worse (see Harding, Warren G.)
-Do not buy into this ‘Let’s just all get along’ bullshit. That’s code for, “Do what we say. Don’t argue.” 51% of the popular vote is not a fucking mandate and ideas that were shitty on November 1 are still shitty on November 3. Yeah, it’ll be harder to block a lot of the bad ideas, and some if not most will get through. This does not mean that we should roll over and play dead. Torpedo the most extreme judicial nominations. Bill Pickering’s judicial record is fair game – hold his feet to the fire. Every time the Republicans bring up Social Security, yell “privatization” and call the AARP. Bring up Greenspan’s recent statements on the issue. It’s a winner (Don’t even try to tell me that this is “scare politics.” Bush ran the ultimate “scare politics” campaign.) Lastly, DO NOT try to make gains by accommodating these fucks on trying to outflank them on the right. Like Harry Truman said, when choosing between a Republican and someone mimicking a Republican, the voter will usually choose the real McCoy.
-Having said that, go easy on the more conservative members of the party. Terry McAuliffe and Joe Lieberman are not the problems. Look, I don’t like Lieberman, but I’d take him over any of the Republicans in the Senate. He looks like Ghandi when you compare him to guys like Tom Coburn and Rick Santorum. This Democratic unity thing – keep it. I know it’s hard, but discipline is what wins elections.
-Keep setting up the parallel media outlets. I personally think that the effects on election outcomes of Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, the American Enterprise Institute, etc., are UNDERESTIMATED, not overestimated. For a lot of folks, Rush is the primary source of their news. We got started late in this game, but Air America, Media Matters, MoveOn, etc. are a good start for information dissemination, fundraising, networking, and yes, spin (call it “framing the issues” if you’re uncomfortable with ‘spin’.) Courage and principles are good, money and technology and organization only complement these virtues.
-Ballot initiatives. We need them. Stem-cell research? Put it on the fucking ballot, hammer the point home to seniors. Enlist Michael J. Fox full-time. It’s a winning fucking issue. Same goes for raising the minimum wage. It was on the ballot in Florida and Nevada, and it passed. It only helps highlight Democrats’ economic arguments. There’s a lot of these issues that make potential ballot referendums. Remember, turnout really is key. If the race itself isn’t enough for voters to get the polls, find a reason to make them turn out.
-Point out the rank hypocrisy of people who claim to stand for your “values.” Just because you oppose gay marriage and have the courage to denounce the sexual slave trade in China (so brave!) does not make you a proponent of “values.” More on this in separate post, but for now suffice it to say that GOP voter shenanigans in this election, coupled with the outright bigotry surrounding a lot of these anti-gay initiatives, should be reported and exploited to their fullest. To quote Walter Mondale: “Politics is not a tea party.” More on this in the next post.
Bush proved that he is slightly more popular than the other guy. So be it. He’ll never prove that his ideas and policies are more just, wise, or honest. Remember that. I for one will never get over this election, just like I never got over the jacked election of 2000. Hell, I haven’t gotten over Adlai Stevenson’s losses in 1952 and 1956. Remember this, learn from it, and move forward, don’t move on.
(Updated for corrections, spellings, etc).