Post -debate newsweek poll: Kerry pulls ahead.
So now that some new polls are out that more accurately portray the ACTUAL mood of voters, can Democrats now take a deep breath and get on with, you know, winning this fucking election.
The recent Harris Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll, completed on Sept. 13, shows Kerry with 48 percent, Bush with 47 percent and Ralph Nader with 2 percent. Those results were nearly identical to the last Harris poll, taken before the Republican Convention, when Kerry was ahead by 1 point. The most noticeable shift in this poll's results is that the 10-point lead Bush enjoyed last June is gone. More than half of the respondents think Bush "doesn't deserve to be reelected [sic]."
The most recent poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press shows the Bush lead falling precipitously during the past week. Between Sept. 8 and Sept. 10, Bush was ahead of Kerry by 54 to 38 among "likely voters" -- but between Sept. 11 and Sept. 14, that gap diminished to Bush 47 versus Kerry 46.
A week ago, the Economist released a new YouGov poll, which employs online technology developed by a British survey firm, and found Bush ahead of Kerry by a single point, 47 to 46. To the magazine's editors this represents an "impressive" result for Bush because more than 56 percent of the voters polled by YouGov say they are "dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time."
I’m not going to make some silly statement like, “The only poll that matters is the one on election day.” While granting that statement to be true, in a silly, junior-high wisdom sort of way, good polls are useful tools. But they ain’t everything. Anyone remember the days after the 2000 Republican convention in Philadelphia? After the convention, Bush opened up a 17 MOTHERFUCKING POINT LEAD on Al Gore. Then after the Dem convention, Gore made most of that up, then slipped back further, etc. Of course, then Gore went on to win the popular vote by half a million votes. NO ONE, not even the Harris poll cited above, generally regarded as one of the best out there, predicted this result. (Harris is the Wall Street Journal house polling company. They’re motto - “We don’t fuck around when it comes to polling”)
So please, less gossiping and backbiting in regards to Kerry’s campaign team and a bit more confidence. Voters like a winner. Like Nancy Pelosi says, “No whining, just winning.”
http://www.salon.com/opinion/conason/2004/09/17/polls/index.html
Posted by mike at October 3, 2004 11:28 AMTechnically that's still a statistical dead heat so it's misleading to claim that "Kerry pulls ahead." (apologies for using such a hotbutton word as 'misleading')
On Thursday Kerry reassured the country that it should be in capable hands if he does wind up winning in November - But does it concern anyone that Democrats need to denegrate the American war effort to win this election?
Posted by: Cam on October 4, 2004 01:03 AMDenigrate the "war effort?" What, exactly, includes the war effort?
If pointing out failure and incompetence is denigrating the war effort, then so be it. I hope to see more of it.
Posted by: Mike on October 5, 2004 01:38 PM